Probability/Severity index

July 4th, 2009

When it was at the top of the heap, Bill & Dave’s Hewlett Packard management training included analyzing potentially risky decisions using a Probability/Severity index. If something was very likely to happen, but would have little impact on operations, the probability would be high, but severity low. Plan for it taking place, but don’t put too many resources into mitigation as there are few consequences to worry about.

While I and most schooled in Austrian Economics are certain the dollar collapse is imminent, you may think we are imbibing strange substances. Thus you give looming economic disaster a low probability. Fine, but consider the severity if we are right. This potential merits a good look even if you think we fear too far.
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Misplaced Faith

June 29th, 2009

Those of us viewing the world with knowledge of Austrian Economics are watching the inevitable result of allowing politicians to print money without limit. The dramatically more popular Keynesian theorists who dominate government economic posts spew lots of comforting words that continue to prove wrong. Yet those of us trying to get friends and family to prepare for economic collapse are greeted with patient, “They have a lot of smart guys who know what they are doing”.

I know the discussion is over and am saddened by the tragic three assumptions embedded in their sense of security: that the manipulators are honest, knowledgeable and that they have our best interests at heart.
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Union Motors

June 10th, 2009

The Confederacy and Republic are long dead. Hooray for the victorious Union. Now mismanagement by private enterprise is being replaced with efficient government central planning. US automakers have now been purchased by the federal government. (We aren’t supposed to notice the printing presses in the background spewing out counterfeit dollars).

I am hugely comforted. While many will eagerly trade their old-school vehicles in, others will need help to make that decision.  I might not be an early-adopter, but I am trying to prepare myself for THE CHANGE.
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frightful knowledge VS terrifying ignorance

May 16th, 2009

I understand that none of your neighbors want to read these books. Even if they are readers, they sure as heck don’t want to own the troubling thoughts these books give. The truths of fiat currencies and unbridled power are too horrible to envision as our own and our children’s futures. But the alternative is worse.
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felony Thinking Small conviction

May 15th, 2009

Today’s local paper tells of an Idaho bank robber receiving a 35-year prison sentence for thinking small. Well that, and going to the wrong schools. Had he gone to Ivy League schools and stolen a million dollars or more, he would be respected and allowed to keep every penny. Heck, he would even be paid ten times what he took in his bank robbery for every speaking engagement they can talk him into in the next few years.
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Montana stands proud

May 5th, 2009

The Montana state legislature and governor have apparently read the US
Constitution - and are standing up for it. As of April 15th, any firearm manufactured in Montana is exempt from federal law as long as it remains in Montana.

Other states rights laws are being considered and passed. I’ll collect them and share with you soon. The story on this particular one can be read here.

Big Rocks in life

April 4th, 2009

Today I was remembering and reflecting on the following story. The “big rocks” in my life are under review at the moment.
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CHANGE for a small town

March 27th, 2009

Your city bill going up again reads the small town weekly. The article chronicles the mayor and city council increasing fees to cover shortfalls in collections. In the world outside of city hall, incomes are shrinking, budgets are tightening and people are straining with some rather dramatic family fiscal problems. For the boys inside the answer is obvious: raise taxes.
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Que bono?

March 20th, 2009

Every day our Goodwill store sends 500 - 1,000 pounds of donated clothing, toys and hardgoods to the landfill because we cannot be positive there is no lead in it. While some consider the product safety law to be a well-meaning effort gone bad, I am more cynical and suspicious of congressional motives.
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Get your script early

March 13th, 2009

As much as anyone here, I wish the Keynesian mythology was valid. I wish doubling the money in circulation would solve the economic problem. I wish handing it to political friends would get us back to a vibrant economy. I wish fiat currencies did not crash 100 out of 100 times.
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